決策分析
Managerial Decision Analysis
學期
106-2
學分
3
學分
當期課號
5530
永久課號
IEM5339
開課單位
工業工程與管理學系
授課教師
李榮貴
校區
光復
類別
選修
上課時間表
| 節 | 週一 |
|---|---|
2 09:00–09:50 | 決策分析 MB520 3 節連堂 |
3 10:10–11:00 | |
4 11:10–12:00 |
* 根據陽明交大上課時間表所列
概述
學習如何在面對許多不確定性因素下, 能夠提升策略決策品質, 創造更高的potential value
先修科目
統計
教學方式
專題演講, 學生心得分享
週次計畫
| 週次 | 主題 |
|---|---|
| 第 1 週 | Introduction to Decision Analysis (1) |
| 第 2 週 | Introduction to Decision Analysis (2) |
| 第 3 週 | Demonstration: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty |
| 第 4 週 | Dialogue Decision Process --- Appropriate Frame (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part A)- Case Study---Framing |
| 第 5 週 | Dialogue Decision Process --- Appropriate Frame (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part A)- Case Study---Framing |
| 第 6 週 | Creating Strategic Alternatives --- Influence Diagram (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part B) Case Study ---Creating Strategic Alternative and Influence Diagram Building |
| 第 7 週 | Dialogue Decision Process --- Spreadsheet Modeling --- Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part C) |
| 第 8 週 | Probabilistic Analysis Case Study ---Spreadsheet modeling and analysis Supertree-Sensitivity software exercise |
| 第 9 週 | 期中考 |
| 第 10 週 | Assessing Probability (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part D)--- Structuring Decision Trees (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part E) |
| 第 11 週 | Case Study---Decision tree building Supertree—Tree modeling exercise |
| 第 12 週 | Value of Information and Control (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part F) |
| 第 13 週 | Decision Trees Analysi |
| 第 14 週 | Final Presentation (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part G) Case Study—Tree Analysis |
| 第 15 週 | Risk Attitude |
| 第 16 週 | Game Theory, personal decision making |
| 第 17 週 | 期末報告 |
| 第 18 週 | 期末考 |
教科書
Decision Analysis for Professional by Peter Mcnamee and John Celona, 2001, SmartOrg
Office Hours
- 地點
- MB514
- 時間
- 星期三早上
- 聯絡方式
- 31996