決策分析
Managerial Decision Analysis
學期
108-2
學分
3
學分
當期課號
1565
永久課號
DEM1107
開課單位
工業工程與管理學系
授課教師
李榮貴
校區
光復
類別
選修
上課時間表
| 節 | 週一 | 週二 |
|---|---|---|
1 08:00–08:50 | 決策分析 MB520 | |
5 13:20–14:10 | 決策分析 MB520 2 節連堂 | |
6 14:20–15:10 |
* 根據陽明交大上課時間表所列
概述
學習如何在面對許多不確定性因素下, 能夠提升策略決策品質, 創造更高的potential value
先修科目
統計
評分方式
Class participation 20%, Quiz 40%, Term paper 40%
課程大綱
週次計畫
| 週次 | 主題 |
|---|---|
| 第 1 週 | Introduction to Decision Analysis (1) |
| 第 2 週 | Introduction to Decision Analysis (2) |
| 第 3 週 | Demonstration: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty |
| 第 4 週 | Dialogue Decision Process --- Appropriate Frame (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part A)- Case Study---Framing |
| 第 5 週 | Dialogue Decision Process --- Appropriate Frame (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part A)- Case Study---Framing |
| 第 6 週 | Creating Strategic Alternatives --- Influence Diagram (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part B) Case Study ---Creating Strategic Alternative and Influence Diagram Building |
| 第 7 週 | Dialogue Decision Process --- Spreadsheet Modeling --- Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part C) |
| 第 8 週 | Probabilistic Analysis Case Study ---Spreadsheet modeling and analysis Supertree-Sensitivity software exercise |
| 第 9 週 | 期中考 |
| 第 10 週 | Assessing Probability (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part D)--- Structuring Decision Trees (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part E) |
| 第 11 週 | Case Study---Decision tree building Supertree—Tree modeling exercise |
| 第 12 週 | Value of Information and Control (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part F) |
| 第 13 週 | Decision Trees Analysi |
| 第 14 週 | Final Presentation (Freemark Abbey Winery Case---Part G) Case Study—Tree Analysis |
| 第 15 週 | Risk Attitude |
| 第 16 週 | Game Theory, personal decision making |
| 第 17 週 | 期末報告 |
| 第 18 週 | 期末考 |
教科書
教科書(請註明書名、作者、出版社、出版年等資訊) Decision Analysis for Professional by Peter Mcnamee and John Celona, 2001, SmartOrg
Office Hours
- 地點
- MB514
- 時間
- 星期三早上
- 聯絡方式
- 31996