實質選擇權與策略投資

Real Options and Strategic Investment

學期

111-1

學分

3 學分

當期課號

537705

永久課號

MGIF30033

開課單位

資訊管理與財務金融系財務金融碩博士班

授課教師

黃星華

校區

光復

類別

選修

上課時間表

節	週四
8 16:30–17:20	實質選擇權與策略投資 M101 3 節連堂
9 17:30–18:20
A 18:30–19:20

* 根據陽明交大上課時間表所列

概述

1. This is the class about the valuation of an investment project or a company. 2. The course first reviews the traditional discounted-cash-flow (DCF) or net-present-value (NPV) methods. 3. This class then introduces some real-options concepts to value an investment project or a company. This new approach is called an expanded NPV method. 4. Finally, some basic game-theory concepts will be further employed into the expanded NPV method to consider the strategic action by competitors. 5. By introducing lots of numerical examples, practical cases and applications, this course will train students and provide them the ability to value an investment project or a company by themselves. 6. Lecture will be provided in Chinese.

先修科目

1. Elementary Investment (undergraduate level) 2. Elementary Statistics (undergraduate level) 3. Elementary Futures and Options (undergraduate level, optional)

教學方式

1. Please note that this course will be lectured in Chinese. 2. Welcome all the students who have learned NPV method in valuation. 3. Midterm and final reports are the most important part in this course in which students will learn how to use NPV and Real Options methods to evaluate a project or a firm. References and Resources: 1. Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, McKinsey & Company, Marc Goedhart, Tim Koller and David Wessels, Wiley, 4th edition, 2005. 2. Real Options: A Practitioner's Guide, Tom Copeland and Vladimir Antikarov, W. W. Norton & Company, 1st edition, 2001. 3. Strategic Investment: Real Options and Games, Han Smit and Lenos Trigeorgis, Princeton University Press, 2004. 4. Playing at Acquisitions (Behavioral Option Games), Han Smith and Thras Moraitis, Princeton Unniversity Press, 2015. 5. Related newspapers and journal articles.

評分方式

Homework 15% Midterm Project (NPV project) 15% Midterm Exam 30% Final Term Project (Real option project) 40%

週次計畫

週次	主題
第 1 週	Introduction to the course (Lecture 1)  What real options is and why it matters  What game theory is and why it matters  An options game example: Innovation Race
第 2 週	DCF/NPV method (Lecture 1)  Review traditional DCF/NPV method  Case Study 1 (DCF Exercise): Valuing CHT  Case Study 2 (DCF Exercise): Valuing Secure Mail
第 3 週	Corporate real options (I) (Lecture 2)  Introduction of derivatives  Basic nature of options  From financial to real options valuation  There is NO free lunch  Binomial option valuation  Real options example: Valuing Project Sable  Binomial real options example: A license by high-tech firm
第 4 週	Corporate real options (II) (Lecture 3)  Overview of common real options  Valuing an R&D investment decision and mine concession license
第 5 週	Corporate real options (III) (Lecture 4)  Case Study 3 (Binomial Real Options Exercise): Offshore oil concessions in the Netherlands
第 6 週	Corporate real options (IV) (Lecture 5)  Case Study 4 (DCF + Real Options Exercise): Aqua Bounty
第 7 週	Midterm Exam (Lecture 2 and 3) (依實際上課進度調整)
第 8 週	Corporate real options (V) (Lecture 6)  Case Study 5 (Real options application): A real option in a jet engine maintenance contract
第 9 週	Corporate real options (VI) (Lecture 7)  Case Study 6 (Real options application): A practical method for valuing real options: The Boeing approach
第 10 週	Midterm Project Presentation (NPV project) (Team #1 - Team #5)
第 11 週	Midterm Project Presentation (NPV project) (Team #6 - Team #10)
第 12 週	Games and strategic decisions (Lecture 8)  The rules of the game  E-commerce auctions and the winner’s curse  Mixed strategies: game theory and sports  Types of basic games  Two-Stage Games: Strategic Value of Early Commitment
第 13 週	Simple strategic investment games (Lecture 9)  One-stage strategic investment: Licensing problem of high-tech firms (Digital vs. Sony)  Two-stage strategic investment: proprietary R&D case (Hewlett-Packard vs. Microsoft)
第 14 週	Simple strategic investment games (Lecture 9)  Two-stage investments with endogenous competition (IBM vs. Toshiba, GE vs. Toyota)  Cooperation in the first stage: joint R&D ventures (Philips and Sony vs. Toshiba and Matsushita)
第 15 週	Final team project presentation I (Real option project) (Team #10 to #6)
第 16 週	Final team project presentation II (Real option project) (Team #5 to #1)
第 17 週	Real options game applications (Lecture 10)  Options and Games analysis at Merck & Co.  Competition between AMD and Intel  Strategic games in consumer electronics (Sony, JVC and Philips) (optional, 依實際上課進度調整)
第 18 週	Real options game applications (Lecture 11)  Acquisition strategies as option games (optional, 依實際上課進度調整)

教科書

No Textbook. Lecture will be uploaded on NYCU E3 system.

Office Hours

地點: 管一館 4樓 (R414) 或線上進行
時間: 1. THU, 1:20~3:10 pm 2. 或可事先email跟老師約時間, 進行線上討論 3. 更歡迎於每次剛上課時提出問題進行討論
聯絡方式: hsinghua.huang@nycu.edu.tw